Aus. Open..Rodger Federer?

[bigplay]

The line jumped up.... then back down at Pinny in the last three weeks.

Any tennis bettors have a comment?
Personally I think he should be bet. Is there some news I have missed about him?

BTW I know next to nothing about tennis.... other than betting Rodger the last couple of years.

 

[Tchocky]

The best thing to do is place a large wager on Roger to win the title. You can hedge yourself on his individual matches if you're concerned. As long as he's healthy, there's no reason why he shouldn't defend.

 

[bigplay]

The best thing to do is place a large wager on Roger to win the title. You can hedge yourself on his individual matches if you're concerned. As long as he's healthy, there's no reason why he shouldn't defend.

Thanks Tchocky sounds like good advice. I have him for a pretty good chunk, don't really want to hedge unless I hear some bad news about him.

 

[Hope1]

It's very early to be placing 'to win tournies'. If you must, make sure you do at a book that has 'Federer MUST start for action' (so injury and withdrawal pre-tourney wont screw you, check the book carefully). Tchocky is correct is he reaches the semi's he will be HUGE fav to win Vs whoever he plays and a hedge to 'not win the title' at that point will make you a winner either way, or at least get your original monies back however you want to play it.

Nadal disturbingly dropped post clay-court season--he was NO WHERE near the man in '05 (POST CLAY COURT SEASON) who had a terrific hardcourt win at TMS Canada (Montreal over Andre) and Madrid on indoor hardcourt over Ivan. It will be intersting to see what he brings to the table in '07. IF IF there is a major (other than Roland Garros) where Nadal may ultimately be able to win, it's The Australian Open. Its played on rebound ace, a surface than would favor his game.

WHo else can give him trouble there? maybe Safin is he's in form, Davy took him to 7-6,7-6 3rd and 4th sets at Melbourne Park last yr, Haas took him to 5. It's VERY early in the tennis season, so you never know, more likely to have an upset there than at the US Open, IMO

gl

 

[syddiggers]

As a word of advice, I would be very careful about betting on any player who plays in this weeks Davis Cup final ( Russia v Argentina ) for the Australian Open. This weekend eats into their schedule big time and interferes with their off-season. I remember hearing Ljubicic say that he got caught behind the eight ball early this season because the Davis Cup final reduced his offseason severely.

I would follow Hope's and Tchocky's advice and bet Federer early, and at places where its not " all in " if you can find them. Generally the books that have the lines up this early are all in as they want some kind of advantage. Federer beating Nadal the last three times they played ( including an exhibition after the Masters Cup ) should have him over any mental hold that Nadal might have had on him, and none of the other players are good enough.

 

[llabb]

Good advice in this thread. Can anyone offer the name of a book or two that is listing Aussie Open futures with "MUST start for action" wagers?

The two that I have that offer Aussie futures right now are Pinny and Bodog, both of which are "All wagers have Action regardless if the player does not play the tournament. No Parlays. No Refunds."

 

[Tchocky]

Good advice in this thread. Can anyone offer the name of a book or two that is listing Aussie Open futures with "MUST start for action" wagers?

The two that I have that offer Aussie futures right now are Pinny and Bodog, both of which are "All wagers have Action regardless if the player does not play the tournament. No Parlays. No Refunds."

Pinnacle is your best bet. Roger must start Round 1 for all wagers to have action.

 

[llabb]

Pinnacle is your best bet. Roger must start Round 1 for all wagers to have action.

Where do you see that? I find the opposite appears to be the case. From the Tennis section of their Wagering Info:

Futures (Ante post) Betting:

All futures (Ante post) bets have action. Should a player withdraw before a tournament begins, bets on that player to win the tournament lose.

 

[syddiggers]

Mon 1/1 Will R. Federer Win Aust. Open 2007?(Must Start R1
Maximum Wager: 1000.00 USD
06:00 AM 1001 Yes -236 Risk To Win
1002 No +216 Risk To Win



This is the best deal you will get. MUST START ROUND 1. Money back if he doesnt walk onto the court.

 

[Hope1]

the courts are anticiapted to be faster at Melbourne Park for the '07 Aussie Open. Will still have the high bounce tho, still on Rebound Ace.

MELBOURNE Park's Australian Open courts are being recoated weeks earlier than usual in a move that could deliver the quickest surface since 2000.
Brisbane company Rebound Ace Sports, under fire during the past few years from Lleyton Hewitt for a decision to slow the rubberised surface, yesterday recoated Vodafone Arena in preparation for the January 15-28 grand slam.
Rod Laver Arena will soon be transformed in what is expected to deliver a significant shift away from a court denigrated as "green clay" by several Australian players.
Open tournament director Craig Tiley said yesterday there would be a seven-day curing window following the treatment of the showcourts before work started on outside courts.
"The objective all along has been about delivering consistency and uniformity from day one until the end of the tournament," Tiley said. "We're recoating all of our showcourts in a bid to achieve the best outcome. Last year it was done much later in December.
"There are three issues. We are doing the resurfacing earlier, there will be more time for the courts to be played on before the tournament begins once the curing time finishes and we will double top-coat the courts with a squeegee finish rather than a broom. All of this will help with the uniformity and consistency."
The Australian Open came under fire in 2000 when a raft of European claycourters complained to former director Paul McNamee over the slick surface. Australian quartet Hewitt, Pat Rafter, Mark Philippoussis and Wayne Arthurs later protested over the subsequent slower surface.
Tiley insists the Open's standing as an independent, international tournament will not be compromised by the demands of local players nor those from abroad.
TENNIS Australia has dismantled its Davis Cup and Fed Cup selection panels.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20759037-3162,00.html

this *should* favor any Federer 'to win Australian Open' futures bet.

 

[syddiggers]

Stupid Aussies, the only country I know who want to give everyone an even playing field, even when it severely disadvantages their own countrymen. They should have kept the Aussie Open on grass.

 

[Hope1]

word out of Hewitt's camp is he's inspired for the 2007 campaign. How can he not be? been sidetracked the last few years with injuries and off court commitments. Time is a tickin' on his career. A slow decline in the world rankings, now sees him nealy outside the top 20.

T Dent makes his return at The Hopman Cup. Wonder if he has lost a few pounds,lol.

A terrible choke job by Davydenko on home soil Vs Nalbandian at The Davis Cup. He even admitted it, stating his muscles just tightened up--the man had nearly double digit double faults and over 70 ue's!! Safin bails them out, congrats to Russia for winning the Davis Cup. The Russian men AND women are where the US 'should' be. RIP American tennis.

Hopman Cup around the corner.....

 

[syddiggers]

Hewitt's time has come and gone. He doesnt have any weapons to trouble the top, and younger/stronger players. In my opinion he has already overachieved by winning two Grand Slams, as outside of fitness and determination he has very little in his favour to match up with the upper echelon of players. With his lack of power and serve, he has to work far too hard for every point, and especially on his own serve where he doesnt get enough free points, and that takes its toll over five sets. I dont think an infant baby is going to improve anything in regards to off-court commitments.

Davydenko looked like he was getting the wobbles in Shanghai which was a little disappointing considering how he blew away the field in Paris. He might be falling into his bad old habits where his mental strength was questionable. The doubles win was key for the Russkies.

Wake me in mid January.